LTE: a Compelling Answer?
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Innovation Reports - 06/07/2009
Roadmap and Forecasts up to 2015
This report provides a complete analysis of the LTE (Long Term Evolution) perspective as the next step towards 4G and real mobile broadband networks. It presents an in-depth analysis of LTE deployment strategies through the elaboration of an original cost model.
The model is based on individual market contexts and operators' situations regarding legacy infrastructure, spectrum licences awards, the availability of devices and the demand for data services.
Resting on thorough market research, this study presents roadmap scenarios and forecasts up to 2015. It also assesses the impact of LTE take-up on the overall mobile ecosystem as we observe the strengthening of current trends towards fixed-mobile convergence and network sharing, a new wave of consolidation in mobile markets and LTE driven global partnerships.
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| M90509 |  | PDF | 79 |
3500 Euros 2500 euros excl. VAT |  |
| M90509 |  | paper | 79 |
2900 Euros 1900 euros excl. VAT |  |
Additional copy at 300 euros excl. VAT Euros
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1. EXCUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1. The roadmap and forecasts 1.2. Modelling the business cases 1.3. Regulations and technicalities
2. METHODOLOGY
3. THE GRAND LTE ROADMAP 3.1. A healthy ecosystem 3.2. Commercial launch scheduled for 2010 3.3. Devices roadmap 3.4. LTE adoption forecasts by region • China, Europe, India, Japan, South Korea, USA
4. WHAT IS THE COST OF LTE DEPLOYMENT? 4.1. LTE deployment model presentation • For dense areas • For sparsely populated area 4.2. Scenario of reference: LTE overlay 4.3. Base case results • 2.1 billion euros over 7 years for 50 million population and 75% coverage
5. WHICH TYPE OF OPERATOR BENEFITS THE MOST? 5.1. LTE: an integrated operator play 5.2. Deployment cost of a greenfield operator
6. JUST FOR URBAN HOTSPOTS OR TO SERVE A WIDER AUDIENCE? 6.1. LTE coverage evolution 6.2. LTE cost of deployment according to population coverage 6.3. Enabling LTE in rural areas: deployment in lower frequency band
7. ENHANCING AND MONETISING THE SERVICE EXPERIENCE 7.1. VoIP: LTE set to change operators' perception 7.2. LTE enhance the mobile experience 7.3. LTE smart pipe: operators leveraging their central position
8. WHICH REGULATORY CONSTRAINTS FOR LTE DEPLOYMENT? 8.1. The telecom and Internet regulation review 8.2. Restrictions applied to base stations 8.3. Asking for more spectrum and less regulation
9. LTE ACCELERATES THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE MOBILE MARKET 9.1. Accelerated trend towards Fixed Mobile Convergence 9.2. LTE strengthens the case for network sharing 9.3. LTE drives partnerships in the mobile sector
10. LTE SPECTRUM: IMPACT ON ROADMAP AND COSTS 10.1. Potential frequency bands: 2G, 3G bands and more 10.2. FDD vs. TDD: paired spectrum still dominant but TDD operations gaining ground 10.3. Roadmap for awards of LTE spectrum licences 10.4. Cost of LTE frequencies
11. LTE KEY TECHNOLOGICAL FEATURES 11.1. OFDMA and spectrum flexibility 11.2. FDD and TDD convergence 11.3. Evolved Packet Core architecture |
• What is the cost of deploying LTE?
• Which type of operator benefits the most?
• What are the regulatory constraints for LTE deployment?
• What are the LTE commercial deployments scheduled by Tier1 operators?
• How LTE could accelerate the development of new popular solutions such as Mobile VoIP, or FMC?
• Could LTE accelerate the consolidation of the mobile market? |
Table 1: Selected constraints for LTE deployment in Germany, UK, France and Switzerland Table 2: Estimates of LTE spectrum value in Western Europe Table 3: Area, population and density of base case scenario Table 4: LTE CapEx for base case scenario Table 5: Sensitivity analysis for mast mutualisation level Table 6: LTE adoption advantages and drawbacks for various operators' types Table 7: LTE investment for different coverage levels for a deployment in the band 2.6 GHz Table 8: LTE investment for different coverage level for an urban and suburban deployment in the band 2.6 GHz and a rural deployment in the band 790-862 MHz Table 9: Services enhanced by LTE Table 10: Power limits to limit electromagnetic exposure set by the WHO Table 11: Selected constraints for LTE deployment in Germany, UK, France and Switzerland Table 12: LTE frequency bands by geographical area Table 13: Main frequency bands for UMTS/HSPA deployment – FDD mode Table 14: Main frequency bands for UMTS/HSPA deployment – TDD mode Table 15: TDD and FDD mode advantages and drawbacks Table 16: Situation of the 2.5-2.69 GHz band Table 17: Date of availability of LTE spectrum Table 18: Swedish 2.6 GHz auctions results Table 19: Summary of US 700 MHz auctions Table 20: Estimates of LTE spectrum value in Western Europe
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Figure 1: Global LTE adoption forecast _ end 2012 – end 2015 (million subscribers) Figure 2: Major operators’ LTE commercial deployment schedule Figure 3: Geographical mapping of early LTE commercial deployment Figure 4: LTE devices roadmap Figure 5: Vodafone, China Mobile and Verizon Wireless partnership influence over LTE Figure 6: Options for carriers’ upgrade to LTE depending on technology deployed Figure 7: Equipment vendors supporting the LTSI and/or NGMN Alliance Figure 8: Mobile operators supporting the LTSI and/or NGMN Alliance Figure 9: Major operators’ LTE commercial deployment schedule Figure 10: Geographical mapping of early LTE commercial deployment Figure 11: LTE devices roadmap Figure 12: Global LTE adoption forecast _ end 2012 – end 2015 (million subscribers) Figure 13: LTE adoption forecast for Japan and South Korea, 2012 - 2015 Figure 14: LTE adoption forecast for China, 2012 - 2015 Figure 15: US subscribers by technology Figure 16: LTE adoption forecast for the USA, 2012 – 2015 Figure 17: LTE adoption forecast for the EU5 and Scandinavia, 2012 - 2015 Figure 18: Network cost model calculation of RAN elements needed for LTE coverage Figure 19: Cumulated population and area in selected European countries Figure 20: Subscribers with LTE enabled handset Figure 21: Handset mix among subscriber base Figure 22: Global Mobile data and mobile internet monthly traffic per services type Figure 23: Average monthly usage per subscriber in Mbit Figure 24: UMTS/HSPA and LTE population coverage over time Figure 25: Backhaul capacity required per cell site in Mbit per second Figure 26: Backhaul technology breakdown in 2008 Figure 27: LTE investment breakdown for base case scenario Figure 28: Sensitivity of RAN investment to mast mutualisation level Figure 29: LTE gradual deployment timeline for an average Western Europe MNO Figure 30: LTE RAN investment according to population coverage _ 2.6 GHz band Figure 31: Comparison of LTE RAN investment _rural population coverage with 800 MHz and 2,6 GHz spectrum Figure 32: LTE investment per inhabitant for various LTE spectrum scenarios Figure 33: LTE adoption drivers, service innovation and business models Figure 34: VoIP competitiveness compared to MNO offers Figure 35: ARPU evolution Figure 36: Power limits applied in Europe Figure 37: The case for 2.6 GHz LTE femtocells Figure 38: UMTS network and potential sharing Figure 39: Vodafone, China Mobile and Verizon wireless influence over LTE ecosystem Figure 40: Partnerships between vendors targeting LTE Japanese market Figure 41: Vendors selected by Verizon Wireless for LTE deployment Figure 42: Situation of the 698-960 MHz band after WRC-07 Figure 43: TDD and FDD developments Figure 44: Digital dividend timetable in Europe Figure 45: Description of OFDM Figure 46: Options for carriers’ upgrade to LTE depending on technology deployed Figure 47: Technological comparison of mobile broadband technologies Figure 48: FDD and TDD duplex both supported by LTE 7 Figure 49: The simplified LTE architecture
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The report contains LTE subscriber forecasts for 2012 and 2015, together with background information on factors affecting subscriber growth.
• A network cost model developed to assess the level of investment required by LTE deployment.
• Sensitivity analyses undertaken to study the impact of main variables (legacy network mutualisation, coverage level and frequency bands of deployment)
• LTE business cases |
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