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Network Saturation?

Innovation Reports - 15/02/2008 Network Saturation?

Video’s impact on operator strategies

The sustained growth in Internet traffic and its expansion over the next few years could result in saturation of the infrastructure. Faced with such a prospect, how can the players involved plan for sharing the required investments and, more importantly, how can operators position themselves to capture the value associated with distributed content.


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Contents

1 - Players involved



1.1 Value chain

1.2 Categories of players and market trends
• Data transport players
- Access
- Metropolitan Area Networks
- National/regional transport
- International transport
- Submarine cable operators

• Interconnection players
- Collocation providers
- Global Internet eXchanges (GIX)
- Service platform hosts

• Content broadcasting optimisation
• Main players by service category


 


2 - Headed for network saturation?



2.1 Change in usage
• P2P
• On-line gaming
• On-line video
• Other applications

2.2 Effect on networks?
• Impact of usages on Internet traffic
• Physical saturation more likely at the network node
• Technical progress to compensate for saturation risks
• Issues for various players in the value chain


 


3 - Impact on current models



3.1 Migration of transport network value and broadcasting to distributed content

3.2 Telecom operators positioning options
• Refocus on operator's core business
• Vertical integration targeting publishing content and services
• Diversification and expansion into the CDN business…
• …and capturing control of distribution and revenue sharing

3.3 Conclusions





• Condition of telecommunications network infrastructure: access, transport, interconnection
• Changes in usage and internet traffic and capacity growth needs
• Network congestion risk analysis
• Network development versus content development: what level of investment?
• Operators’ strategy: “pure player” model or diversification policy
• What bandwidth for what types of consumer applications?
• Who will benefit from Internet traffic changes in the data transmission market?
• Is CDN the best solution for increasing video flow?
• How can congestion risk be avoided at the interconnection nodes?
• Are new negotiations on peering agreements inevitable?
• Will technical changes compensate for network saturation risks?
• Who should pay for the cost of additional Internet traffic?
• Will network infrastructure investment allow for monetizing content?
Telecom Operators
• Identify the impact of network infrastructure congestion on the operator model
• Analyse the consequences of a diversification policy towards content distribution
• Understand the remaining room to manoeuvre in terms of investment

Content providers
• Analyse the implications of rate setting by network operators on traffic
• Understand the impact of operator diversification on CDN

Technical solution providers (hosting, collocation, etc.)
• Understand changes in the needs of network operators
• Anticipate new commercial outlets

Investors and analysts
• Understand players' positioning in the value chain and their level of future investment
• Anticipate the next moves in the telecom network ecosystem


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Contact

Valιrie CHAILLOU
Senior Consultant
P: +33 (0)467 144 422
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